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Explore the 2016 acclamation in detail with this alternate map.

Andy Kim is a above White House civic aegis official 46% favorable rating; 28% unfavorable; 26% don’t apperceive

Tom MacArthur is the accepted representative, aboriginal adopted in 2014. 40% favorable rating; 36% unfavorable; 24% don’t apperceive

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This beat commune voted for Barack Obama both times and for Donald Trump in 2016. The bench has been mostly captivated by a Republican for the accomplished two decades.

(We polled this commune from Sept. 22-26, assuming Mr. Kim with a lead.)

Comprising bank towns, Philadelphia suburbs, farmland and Pinelands, it has no bright bounded identity, allotment of why Politico has alleged it a “carpetbagger’s paradise.”

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Mr. Trump’s about aversion in the commune has fabricated activity harder for Mr. MacArthur, who voted in favor of the 2017 tax bill and was a key disciplinarian of the G.O.P.’s accomplishment to aition Obamacare.

Mr. Kim is a first-time applicant with a accomplishments in civic security. A adolescent of South Korean immigrants, he grew up in New Jersey and became a Rhodes Scholar. He becoming a doctorate in all-embracing relations at Oxford and spent abundant of the accomplished decade alive in Washington.

Mr. MacArthur, a affluent above allowance executive, mostly self-funded his aboriginal attack but this time has aloft added than $3.7 actor as of the best contempo filing reports. Mr. Kim, who has aloft money from all over the country, has pulled advanced in fund-raising, with about $4.4 million.

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Other organizations’ ratings:

Previous acclamation results:

It’s about best to attending at a distinct poll in the ambience of added polls:

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There’s a big catechism on top of the accepted allowance of absurdity in a poll: Who is activity to vote? It’s a decidedly arduous catechism this year, back appropriate elections accept apparent Democrats voting in ample numbers.

To appraisal the acceptable electorate, we amalgamate what bodies say about how acceptable they are to vote with advice about how generally they accept voted in the past. In antecedent races, this access has been added authentic than artlessly demography bodies at their word. But there are abounding added means to do it.

Once we’ve announced to 88 more voters, we’ll appearance you the aftereffect of our poll beneath several altered assembly scenarios.

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Even if we got assembly absolutely right, the allowance of absurdity wouldn’t abduction all of the absurdity in a poll. The simplest adaptation assumes we accept a absolute accidental sample of the voting population. We do not.

People who acknowledge to surveys are about consistently too old, too white, too accomplished and too politically affianced to accurately represent everyone.

Pollsters atone by giving added weight to respondents from under-represented groups.

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We’re alone alpha to weight our poll, because we haven’t announced to abundant bodies to do it well, and we don’t accept as abounding of some types of bodies as we would like. We will eventually weight by age, affair registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, apprenticeship and region, mainly application abstracts from voting annal files aggregate by L2, a detached aborigine book vendor.

Once we’ve announced to added voters, we’ll appearance you added accepted means to weight a poll.

We haven’t accomplished abundant ambivalent voters to say abundant about them yet.

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Voters civic are acutely disconnected forth demographic lines. Our poll suggests capacity too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results amid subgroups may not be adumbrative or reliable. Be abnormally accurate with groups with beneath than 100 respondents, apparent actuality in stripes.

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