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Explore the 2016 acclamation in detail with this alternate map.

Andy Kim is a above White House civic aegis official 41% favorable rating; 36% unfavorable; 23% don’t apperceive

Tom MacArthur is the accepted representative, aboriginal adopted in 2014. 45% favorable rating; 33% unfavorable; 22% don’t apperceive

This beat commune voted for Barack Obama both times and for Donald Trump in 2016. The bench has been mostly captivated by a Republican for the accomplished two decades.

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(We polled this commune from Sept. 22-26, assuming Mr. Kim with a lead.)

Comprising bank towns, Philadelphia suburbs, farmland and Pinelands, it has no bright bounded identity, allotment of why Politico has alleged it a “carpetbagger’s paradise.”

Mr. Trump’s about aversion in the commune has fabricated activity harder for Mr. MacArthur, who voted in favor of the 2017 tax bill and was a key disciplinarian of the G.O.P.’s accomplishment to aition Obamacare.

Mr. Kim is a first-time applicant with a accomplishments in civic security. A adolescent of South Korean immigrants, he grew up in New Jersey and became a Rhodes Scholar. He becoming a doctorate in all-embracing relations at Oxford and spent abundant of the accomplished decade alive in Washington.

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Mr. MacArthur, a affluent above allowance executive, mostly self-funded his aboriginal attack but this time has aloft added than $3.7 actor as of the best contempo filing reports. Mr. Kim, who has aloft money from all over the country, has pulled advanced in fund-raising, with about $4.4 million.

Other organizations’ ratings:

Previous acclamation results:

It’s about best to attending at a distinct poll in the ambience of added polls:

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There’s a big catechism on top of the accepted allowance of absurdity in a poll: Who is activity to vote? It’s a decidedly arduous catechism this year, back appropriate elections accept apparent Democrats voting in ample numbers.

To appraisal the acceptable electorate, we amalgamate what bodies say about how acceptable they are to vote with advice about how generally they accept voted in the past. In antecedent races, this access has been added authentic than artlessly demography bodies at their word. But there are abounding added means to do it.

Just because one applicant leads in all of these altered assembly scenarios doesn’t beggarly abundant by itself. They don’t represent the abounding ambit of accessible assembly scenarios, let abandoned the abounding ambit of accessible acclamation results.

Even if we got assembly absolutely right, the allowance of absurdity wouldn’t abduction all of the absurdity in a poll. The simplest adaptation assumes we accept a absolute accidental sample of the voting population. We do not.

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People who acknowledge to surveys are about consistently too old, too white, too accomplished and too politically affianced to accurately represent everyone.

Pollsters atone by giving added weight to respondents from under-represented groups.

Here, we’re weighting by age, affair registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, apprenticeship and region, mainly application abstracts from voting annal files aggregate by L2, a detached aborigine book vendor.

But weighting works abandoned if you weight by the appropriate categories and you apperceive what the agreement of the electorate will be. In 2016, abounding pollsters didn’t weight by apprenticeship and abstract Hillary Clinton’s continuing as a result.

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Here are added accepted means to weight a poll:

Just because one applicant leads in all of these altered weighting scenarios doesn’t beggarly abundant by itself. They don’t represent the abounding ambit of accessible weighting scenarios, let abandoned the abounding ambit of accessible acclamation results.

About 9 percent of voters said that they were ambivalent or banned to acquaint us whom they would vote for.

Voters civic are acutely disconnected forth demographic lines. Our poll suggests capacity too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. After-effects amid subgroups may not be adumbrative or reliable. Be abnormally accurate with groups with beneath than 100 respondents, apparent actuality in stripes.

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